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Nowcastdown | Econbrowser

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Gdppix Jun24.png

Atlanta and New York Feds cut second-quarter growth estimates

Figure 1: Reported GDP (bold black), GDPNow (light blue box), NY Fed (pink triangle), and May median of Expert Forecaster Survey (light green line), all in 2017 USD billion, SAAR. Source: BEA (2024 Q1 2nd release), Atlanta Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bankand authors’ calculations.

For the first time, the estimated level using GDPNow is below the May SPF, the result of a downward revision of first-quarter GDP and slower projected growth.

The downward trend in nowcasts is notable. Consider GDPNow.

sauce: Atlanta Fedaccessed June 3, 2024.

There was a big swing in downside expectations for Construction and ISM Manufacturing, with GDPNow raising its q/q SAAR from 2.7% to 1.8%, compared with just a 0.1 percentage point decline in the Goldman Sachs tracker.

That being said, second quarter forecasts still don’t show a recession, as do monthly indicators for April (see here).

This entry is by Menzie Chin.

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