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Home Investment NewsReal Estate Investing Vendor and property buyer activity is high, what’s going on?

Vendor and property buyer activity is high, what’s going on?

by xyonent
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Key takeaways

Over the past four weeks, new listings were 18% above this time last year, and 7.7% above the five-year average.

Almost every capital city and rest of state region has seen an increase in vendor activity relative to a year ago, except Hobart (-2.4%).

The largest jump in vendor activity is in Melbourne (+34.8% on a year ago) and Regional Victoria (+39.4%).

Most regions are showing enough buyer demand to absorb the higher than average flow of listings coming to market, with the total stock tracking -3.0% lower than a year ago and almost -19% below the previous five-year average.

However, listings are elevated in Melbourne (+9.6%) and Hobart (+39.3%) as well as Regional Victoria (+29.7%) and Regional Tasmania (+21.9%). Given the higher stock levels and generally soft selling conditions, these regions have generally seen softer value growth.

On the flip side, advertised stock levels remain extremely low in some markets across WA, SA and Queensland, where total listings are more than -34% below the previous five-year average. Unsurprisingly, these regions are leading value gains nationally as buyers compete for a small pool of available properties.

Areas of Victoria dominate the top 20 list of SA3 regions where total listings are most elevated relative to the previous five-year average, taking 11 of the top 20. Areas of Tasmania were also over-represented in the list, comprising eight of the top 20 areas for the largest lift in listings.

The most significant drops in total listings relative to the previous five-year average were concentrated in rural areas of Queensland, SA and WA. The only two capital city SA3 regions to make the top 20 list for the largest decrease in listings were located in Perth (Kwinana) and Brisbane (Beaudesert), with both regions offering an extremely affordable median value relative to the broader metro average.

As we approach the cooler winter months the flow of new listings coming to market is slowing, but tracking well above the previous five-year average.

Over the past four weeks, CoreLogic tracked 38,258 freshly advertised properties, almost 18% more than at the same time last year and 7.7% above the previous five-year average.

The above-average level of vendor activity may be tied to the previous dearth of listings as vendors sat on their hands during the early phase of the rate hiking cycle.

Or, more homeowners could be motivated to sell due to rising levels of financial pressure amid high interest rates and cost of living pressures.

Or, some homeowners may simply be looking to de-risk their balance sheets by cashing out of the market following a period of significant growth in values.

Listings

In reality, the higher level of vendor activity can probably be attributed to a combination of all these factors.

In strong markets like Perth, Adelaide and Brisbane, sellers may feel incentivised by market conditions that remain skewed towards vendors, while in softer markets, where overall stock levels are elevated, it is buyers who generally hold the upper hand.

Almost every capital city and rest of state region has seen an increase in vendor activity relative to a year ago, except Hobart (- 2.4%) where overall stock levels have been high for several years and values have recorded a substantial downturn since peaking in March 2022.

The other exceptions, but in the opposite direction, are Melbourne (+34.8% a year ago) and Regional Victoria (+39.4%), which stand out with the largest jump in vendor activity.

The larger rise in new listings across Victoria could be related to a combination of factors including high property taxes alongside a rising element of financial stress as high interest rates and cost of living pressures.

Most regions are showing enough buyer demand

Most regions are showing enough buyer demand to absorb the higher-than-average flow of listings coming to market.

Despite the higher-than-average trend in new listings, nationally, the total number of homes advertised for sale is holding relatively flat, tracking -3.0% lower than a year ago and almost -19% below the previous five-year average.

New Listings Australia Rolling 4 Week Count

However, listings are elevated in some markets

The total number of advertised properties is sitting above the previous five-year average in Melbourne (+9.6%) and Hobart (+39.3%) as well as Regional Victoria (+29.7%) and Regional Tasmania (+21.9%).

Total Listings Australia Rolling 4 Week Count

Given the higher stock levels and generally soft selling conditions, these regions have generally seen softer value growth.

On the other hand, advertised stock levels remain extremely low in some markets, especially across Western Australia, South Australia and Queensland, where total listings are more than -34% below the previous five-year average.

Benchmark summary:

Number of new and total listings compared with a year ago and previous five-year average

Four week count of New Listings Four week count of Total Listings
Row Labels Current 4 weeks Change from same time

last year

Change from previous

5yr average

Current 4 weeks Change from same time

last year

Change from previous

Combined capitals 24,505 16.7% 6.8% 77,668 -2.7% -16.8%
Combined regionals 13,753 19.7% 9.4% 60,868 -3.5% -20.6%
National 38,258 17.8% 7.7% 138,534 -3.0% -18.5%
Sydney 6,184 9.4% 1.9% 19,376 -2.7% -11.2%
Melbourne 8,572 34.8% 23.6% 29,744 13.3% 9.6%
Brisbane 3,697 19.7% -1.2% 10,924 -6.7% -34.1%
Adelaide 1,526 2.4% -8.0% 3,864 -15.5% -39.6%
Perth 3,505 4.0% 0.0% 9,557 -24.7% -44.5%
Hobart 325 -2.4% -2.0% 1,571 -0.9% 39.3%
Darwin 162 1.3% -1.6% 835 -23.7% -20.7%
Rest of NSW 3,863 14.6% 2.6% 17,982 -0.3% -6.5%
Rest of Vic 3,194 39.4% 37.3% 15,731 15.4% 29.7%
Rest of Qld 4,251 8.8% -6.2% 16,869 -17.1% -43.1%
Rest of SA 545 12.6% 14.4% 2,304 -10.0% -49.2%
Rest of WA 970 7.9% 0.1% 4,268 -19.0% -47.9%
Rest of Tas 548 13.0% 23.1% 3,003 7.8% 21.9%
Rest of NT 65 27.5% 19.5% 394 -10.0% -20.7%

 

Unsurprisingly, these regions are leading value gains nationally as buyers compete for a small pool of available properties.

Areas of Victoria dominate the top 20 list of SA3 regions where total listings are most elevated relative to the previous five-year average, taking out the top eight places and comprising 11 of the top 20 overall.

Top 20: Largest increase in total listings from previous five-year average (by SA3 region)

SA3 Region SA4 Region GCCSA Current 4 weeks Same time last year Previous 5yr average Relative to a year ago Relative to 5yr avg
Ballarat Ballarat Rest of Vic. 1,682 1,278 833 31.6% 102.0%
Barwon – West Geelong Rest of Vic. 216 162 111 33.3% 95.3%
Creswick – Daylesford – Ballan Ballarat Rest of Vic. 478 357 253 33.9% 88.8%
Sunbury Melbourne – North West Greater Melbourne 454 312 259 45.5% 75.2%
Maryborough – Pyrenees Ballarat Rest of Vic. 322 245 186 31.4% 73.1%
Macedon Ranges Melbourne – North West Greater Melbourne 364 288 222 26.4% 63.7%
Heathcote – Castlemaine – Kyneton Bendigo Rest of Vic. 651 560 398 16.3% 63.6%
Melton – Bacchus Marsh Melbourne – West Greater Melbourne 2,256 1,834 1,390 23.0% 62.3%
Brighton Hobart Greater Hobart 136 107 86 27.1% 58.5%
Sorell – Dodges Ferry Hobart Greater Hobart 207 194 133 6.7% 55.6%
South East Coast South East Rest of Tas. 186 153 121 21.6% 53.7%
Central Highlands (Tas.) South East Rest of Tas. 141 104 93 35.6% 51.0%
Rouse Hill – McGraths Hill Sydney – Baulkham Hills and Hawkesbury Greater Sydney 552 389 378 41.9% 46.1%
Surf Coast – Bellarine Peninsula Geelong Rest of Vic. 1,256 1,079 872 16.4% 44.1%
Colac – Corangamite Warrnambool and South West Rest of Vic. 383 275 267 39.3% 43.4%
Hobart – South and West Hobart Greater Hobart 231 222 166 4.1% 39.5%
Hobart – North West Hobart Greater Hobart 371 396 269 6.3% 37.9%
North East Launceston and North East Rest of Tas. 538 417 391 29.0% 37.5%
Snowy Mountains Capital Region Rest of NSW 215 169 160 27.2% 34.2%
Hobart – North East Hobart Greater Hobart 327 361 245 9.4% 33.6%

 

Areas of Tasmania were also over-represented in the list, comprising eight of the top 20 areas for the largest lift in listings.

Regional Victoria’s Ballarat has recorded the most substantial lift in listings, with stock levels 31.6% higher than a year ago and more than double the previous five-year average.

Stock levels in Ballarat have risen from a low base after moving through record lows during the pandemic, but have been on a persistent upward trajectory since early 2022, fueling a -11.3% slump in dwelling values from the market’s peak.

While areas of Regional Victoria dominate the highest rankings for the largest rise in total listings, the outer west and north west of Melbourne have also seen a large rise in advertised stock levels.

The SA3’s of Sunbury, Macedon Ranges and Melton-Bacchus Marsh all recorded total listings more than 62% above the previous five-year average.

Dwelling values have trended lower in each of these markets, but remain well above pre-pandemic levels.

Outside of Victoria and Tasmania, the only other regions to feature in the top 20 largest increase in total listings were Rouse Hill- McGraths Hill in Sydney and the Snowy Mountains SA3, located in the Capital Region of Regional NSW.

Top 20: Largest decrease in total listings from previous five-year average (by SA3 region)

Number of listings Relative to a

year ago

Relative to

5yr avg

Region name SA4 Region GCCSA Current 4

weeks

Same time

last year

Previous 5yr

average

Outback – South Queensland – Outback Rest of Qld 84 194 342 -56.7% -75.4%
Burnett Wide Bay Rest of Qld 357 452 1,034 -21.0% -65.5%
Innisfail – Cassowary Coast Cairns Rest of Qld 374 501 1,069 -25.3% -65.0%
Kwinana Perth – South West Greater Perth 147 260 416 -43.5% -64.7%
Charters Towers – Ayr – Ingham Townsville Rest of Qld 403 624 1,113 -35.4% -63.8%
Darling Downs – East Darling Downs – Maranoa Rest of Qld 191 244 505 -21.7% -62.2%
Daly – Tiwi – West Arnhem Northern Territory – Outback Rest of NT 27 60 69 -55.0% -60.8%
Beaudesert Logan – Beaudesert Greater Brisbane 80 130 203 -38.5% -60.6%
Lower North Barossa – Yorke – Mid North Rest of SA 97 140 246 -30.7% -60.5%
Wheat Belt – South Western Australia – Wheat Belt Rest of WA 116 147 293 -21.1% -60.4%
Biloela Central Queensland Rest of Qld 90 143 224 -37.1% -59.8%
Bourke – Cobar – Coonamble Far West and Orana Rest of NSW 96 141 237 -31.9% -59.5%
Esperance Western Australia – Outback (South) Rest of WA 147 170 363 -13.5% -59.5%
Darling Downs (West) – Maranoa Darling Downs – Maranoa Rest of Qld 297 389 700 -23.7% -57.6%
Outback – North and East South Australia – Outback Rest of SA 193 301 452 -35.9% -57.3%
Manjimup Bunbury Rest of WA 200 197 467 1.5% -57.2%
Augusta – Margaret River – Busselton Bunbury Rest of WA 361 454 829 -20.5% -56.5%
Granite Belt Darling Downs – Maranoa Rest of Qld 245 252 560 2.8% -56.2%
Barossa Barossa – Yorke – Mid North Rest of SA 103 144 235 -28.5% -56.1%
Yorke Peninsula Barossa – Yorke – Mid North Rest of SA 232 218 529 6.4% -56.1%

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Note: The most significant drops in total listings relative to the previous five-year average were concentrated in rural areas of Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia.

Rural areas of Queensland comprised the top three places on the league table and made up eight positions in the overall top 20.

In many cases, these areas saw listing numbers fall from extremely high levels leading into the pandemic.

The trend towards lower listings in these markets is being fuelled by a combination of housing affordability and the changed demographic patterns that favoured regional markets during the pandemic.

Most of these regions have seen total listings either stabilise around decade lows or continue to trend lower as demand continues to outweigh supply.

The only two capital city SA3 regions to make the top 20 list for the largest decrease in listings were located in Perth (Kwinana) and Brisbane (Beaudesert), with both of these regions offering an extremely affordable median value relative to the broader metro average.

About Tim Lawless
Tim heads up the Core Logic RP Data research and analytics team, analysing real estate markets, demographics and economic trends across Australia. Visit www.corelogic.com.au

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