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Home CommoditiesForex Daily Broad Market Recap โ€“ June 20, 2024

Daily Broad Market Recap โ€“ June 20, 2024

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Market attention has been focused on major announcements by several central banks, one of which was a surprise interest rate cut.

How did the rest of the asset classes fare?


  • The People’s Bank of China keeps one- and five-year prime mortgage rates unchanged 3.45% and 3.95% respectively
  • Switzerland’s trade surplus in May was CHF 5.81 billion (expected CHF 3.84 billion, previous CHF 4.34 billion). Exports fell by 1.6% and imports dropped by 3.8%.
  • German producer price index in May: 0.0% m/m (expected 0.1%, previous 0.2%)
  • The Swiss National Bank (SNB) cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.25%. The bank expects interest rates to remain unchanged at 1.50%, citing the strength of the franc over the past few weeks and the risk to inflation.
  • The Bank of England (BOE) kept interest rates unchanged at 5.25%. The MPC vote was 7-2 as expected, but members noted that the August decision was “valid.”
  • US weekly initial jobless claims: 238K (expected 235K, last time 243K)
  • U.S. building permits in May: 1.39M (Expected: 1.45M, Previous: 1.44M)
  • US housing starts in May: 1.28M (Expected: 1.37M, Previous: 1.35M)
  • Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for June: 1.3 (Expected 4.8, last time 4.5)
  • EIA Crude Oil Inventories: -2.5 million barrels (forecast -2.8 million barrels, previous +3.7 million barrels)
  • Australian manufacturing PMI June: 47.5 (previous 49.7)
  • Australia’s June services PMI: 51.0 (previous 52.5)
  • UK GfK Consumer Confidence Index June: -14 (Expected -16, Previous -17)

Broader market price trends:

Dollar Index, Gold, S&P 500, Oil, US 10-Year Treasury Yield, Bitcoin Overlay Chart by TradingView

Market participants appear to be craving risk during Asian market hours, as gold and Bitcoin edged higher and the S&P 500 Index continues to climb.

However, while crude oil prices remained stable, the energy commodity ultimately surged after EIA inventories fell by 2.5 million barrels.

The tide turned for US stocks in New York, with the S&P 500 index hitting a new high of 5,500 earlier in the day before closing down 0.2%.

The Nasdaq also fell after tech giant Nvidia reversed an earlier gain and fell 3.5%, lagging stocks such as Microsoft and Apple as investors likely booked profits on the tech sector’s rally earlier this week.

FX Market Trends: US Dollar vs. Major Currencies

USD vs Major Currency Chart Overlay by TradingView

USD and major currencies overlay Chart by TradingView

The dollar was broadly flat in early Asian trading, except for the New Zealand dollar, which edged up slightly.

Volatility in USD/CHF increased after the Swiss National Bank released its policy statement, surprising the market with an additional 0.25% interest rate cut. The pair continued to rise at a moderate pace in the following hours before stabilizing throughout the US session, but still ended the day up 0.86%.

Cable also performed well following the Bank of England’s “dovish hold” decision as policy makers appear to be preparing for a possible rate cut in August.

The dollar maintained its gains against other safe-haven currencies despite generally weak U.S. economic data, although the Canadian dollar appears to have benefited from higher oil prices.

Potential catalysts on the upcoming economic calendar:

  • UK Retail Sales (6am GMT)
  • France flash manufacturing and services PMI, 7:15am GMT
  • Germany Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI, 7:30am GMT
  • Eurozone manufacturing and services PMI flash, 8am GMT
  • UK Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI, 8:30am GMT
  • Canadian headline and core retail sales figures will be released at 12:30 pm GMT.
  • US flash manufacturing and services PMIs are due to be released at 1:45pm GMT.
  • U.S. Existing Home Sales, 2pm GMT

Today is Preliminary PMI figures from around the worldThese leading economic indicators are likely to influence the overall market mood on the trading day, so while Europe is likely to see a general improvement, the US may report weaker activity in both the manufacturing and services sectors.

Also be aware of potential surprises in the data and possible differences in industry performance among major economies.

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