Monday, July 22, 2024
Home Economic Trends Slowdown: Three indicators of production and aggregate demand

Slowdown: Three indicators of production and aggregate demand

by xyonent
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Gdppix Jun24c.png

Combining the Q3 announcements from Q1 and GDP+ gives us the following picture (by level).

Figure 1: Reported GDP (bold black), GDO (blue), GDP+ (tan), final sales (light blue), CBO June forecast (red), and GDPNow (June 27) are all in billion C$ SAAR 2017. GDP+ levels are iterated based on GDP reported levels in Q4 2019. Source: BEA Q1 2024 3rd Release (via FRED), Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank, Atlanta Fed, CBO (June)and authors’ calculations.

Reported GDP is significantly higher than GDO or GDP+ (1.1% and 0.9%, respectively), but the growth rates are not that different.GDPNow tracks the June CBO forecast (based on early May data).

Final sales are an indicator of total demand, and this indicator has maintained pace.

Some of these trends become easier to see when looking at growth rates.

Figure 2: Annualized growth rates for quarterly GDP reports (bold black), GDO (blue), GDP+ (tan), final sales (light blue), CBO June GDP forecast (red), and GDPNow (June 27). Growth rates are calculated as first log differences. Source: BEA 2024Q1 3rd release via FRED, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank, Atlanta Fed, CBO (June)and authors’ calculations.

It is also true that all indicators slowed down in the first quarter, with GDP and GDO growth rates in line.

At higher frequencies, we see a slight acceleration with the Louis Mertens Stock/NY Fed WEI at 2.53% (data through June 22nd) and the Baumeister/Leiva Leon/Sims at -0.16% (i.e. -0.16% below trend growth).

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