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Business Cycle Indicators, July 1

by xyonent
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Recindex May24k.png

Monthly GDP rose for the second consecutive month. Final sales rose in May, but were not enough to fully offset April’s decline. Below are charts of key indicators from the NBER BCDC and monthly GDP from the SPGMI (formerly IHS-Markit, and before that Macroeconomic Advisers).

Figure 1: CES Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) Employment (bold blue), Private Employment (orange), Industrial Production (red), Personal Income Excluding Current Transfers (bold green), Manufacturing and Trade Sales (black), Consumption (light blue), Monthly GDP (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2023M04=0. Source: BLS via FRED, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, BEA 2024Q1 3rd release, S&P Global Market Insights (formerly Macroeconomic Advisors, IHS Markit) (7/1/Scheduled for release in 2024), and author’s calculations.

All indicators with data rose in May except for private employment.

Meanwhile, GDPNow in Q1 fell from 2.2% to 1.7% (SAAR), while SPGMI tracking is at 1.9%.

Combined with the slowdown in core inflation measures and one-year-out inflation expectations, it seems to me that the Fed has achieved a fairly soft landing so far (although it is important to note that indicators of economic activity will be subject to revision in the future).



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