The US dollar ended the trading week lower, with most of the decline coming against the Australian and New Zealand dollars. ANZ reported overnight that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to raise the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points in both February and April, to a total of 6%. consensus view. ANZ believes this forecast is based on a series of small but unwelcome surprises in economic data, which does not give confidence that the RBNZ is well on its way to achieving its inflation target. OCR currently stands at 5.5% and the market largely expects the RBNZ to keep rates on hold at its next meeting in February, with a 90% expectation of a decision on hold, but ANZ expects rates to remain unchanged at its next February 28th and April meetings. It stands out in that it expects interest rates to rise. There were 10 meetings.
NZDUSD rose nearly 1% on the day on the news. The Australian dollar versus the US dollar rose 0.54%. The US dollar moved mixedly against other currencies during the US trading session. Overall, the NZ dollar was the strongest of the major currencies on the day, while the Swiss franc was the weakest.
From the strongest to the weakest of the major currencies
In today’s session, Canada’s employment statistics showed an increase of 37,600 jobs, but all of the gains were in part-time jobs. Full-time employment decreased by -11.6K. The unemployment rate fell to 5.7% from 5.8% the previous month. USDCAD ended the day little changed, trading up and down.
No US economic indicators were announced on this day. However, there were also additional Fed statements from Fed’s Messrs. Logan and Bostic.
Fed President Logan emphasized that although there are signs of easing, the labor market remains extremely tight, suggesting a nuanced view of the current economic situation. He acknowledged that significant progress has been made on inflation, but he noted that more efforts are needed to fully address inflation. Governor Logan advocated a cautious, data-driven approach and suggested there was no immediate urgency to adjust interest rates at this time. His comments reflect his prioritization of building confidence in the long-term stability of inflation. While Logan noted that supply chains have largely returned to normal, he acknowledged that supply chain issues persist in certain industries and may take longer to fully resolve. suggested. He said he would focus on monitoring potential risks that could undermine inflation progress and emphasized the Fed’s vigilance in maintaining economic stability.
In a conversation with NPR, Fed President Bostic expressed concern that inflation has been too high for an extended period of time. He expressed optimism that the U.S. is on track to regain its pre-pandemic economic vitality and stressed the importance of preventing another spike in inflation. Bostic emphasized that current data suggests that real wage growth is likely to continue in the coming months. He noted that businesses primarily face challenges in finding employees and affordable housing. Mr. Bostic further reassured that banks are aware of the risks that exist in their portfolios and are well-positioned to manage them effectively, adding that there is some degree of security within the banking sector to weather potential economic fluctuations. indicated that it is ready.
During the trading week, the US dollar index rose 0.10% (DXY) but was mixed against major currencies. Looking at major currencies, the US dollar was largely unchanged against the euro and pound, the strongest against the Swiss franc, and the weakest against the New Zealand dollar.
- Euro unchanged
- Yen, +0.65%
- Pounds unchanged
- Swiss Franc, +0.90%
- Canadian dollar, -0.02%
- Australian dollar, -0.20%
- New Zealand dollar, -1.49%
Today’s yields were a mix of rising short-term interest rates and falling long-term interest rates.
- 2-year 4.484%, +2.8 basis points
- 5 years, 4.140%, +1.6 basis points
- 10 years, 4.177%, +0.7 basis points
- 30 years, 4.374%, -0.6 basis points
Yields rose this trading week as markets began to wind down the scale of monetary tightening.
- 2 years, +11.4 basis points
- 5 years, +15.4 basis points
- 10 years, +15.3 basis points
- 30 years, +15.1 basis points
The US stock market continued to rise today, with a wide range of indexes rising steadily. The S&P index closed above the 5,000 level for the first time in history. The Nasdaq index exceeded $16,000 for the first time since November 2021. The S&P closed at a record level and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, although lower today, traded at a record level this week.
The final numbers are:
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -54.64 points (-0.14%) to 38,671.70.
- The S&P rose 28.70 points, or 0.57%, to 5,026.62.
- The Nasdaq rose 196.94 points (1.25%) to 15,990.65.
This week’s major indexes ended 2024 with gains for the fifth straight week after falling sharply in the first business week of this year.
- Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.04%
- S&P rose 1.37%
- Nasdaq rose 2.31%
In other markets this week:
- Crude oil rose $4.26 (5.89%) to $76.54
- Gold fell -$15.02 (-0.74%) to $2024.42.
- Silver fell $0.08 (-0.34%)
- Bitcoin soared $4,975, or 11.6%, as flow risks pushed the digital currency higher.
Next week’s US CPI will focus on economic announcements
Monday:
Tuesday:
- New Zealand inflation expectations
- uk employment
- US consumer price index
Wednesday:
- UK CPI
- British Governor Bailey speaks
Thursday:
- australian dollar employment
- UK GDP
- US retail sales
- U.S. unemployment insurance claim
Friday:
- UK retail sales
- US PPI
- Consumer sentiment in Michigan, USA.
Shopify, Coca Cola, AIG, Cisco, and Coinbase will be among the companies to watch on next week’s earnings calendar. Perhaps the big daddy of the entire earnings season will be announced on February 21st, when NVIDIA is scheduled to report. The fate of AI and Ai stock rests with chip suppliers.
Tuesday:
- Shopify
- coca cola
- marriott
- lift
- A.I.G.
Wednesday:
- Kraft Heinz
- albemarle
- Tulio
- Cisco
Thursday:
Thanks for your cooperation. I hope everyone has a great weekend!
