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Where you can check the business cycle dates of each country [updated] – investxyon
Thursday, February 22, 2024
Home Economic Trends Where you can check the business cycle dates of each country [updated]

Where you can check the business cycle dates of each country [updated]

by xyonent
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Use (roughly) the Burns-Mitchell-NBER approach. An incomplete list, focused on those updated over time by an agency, company, or other organization. (Post updated on December 6, 2021)

For a single economy:

cross country:

The methodologies are different and involve different degrees of judgmental input or sequence of inputs. Some observations from this post.in Chin and Kukko (2015) and Chin and Ferrara (2024), we relied on the ECRI chronology. There are many other approaches, such as applying Jim Hamilton’s time series approach to GDP in the United States. [latest announcement].

As a side note, here are the six major macro indicators (as of February 2, 2024, monthly frequency) followed by the NBER BCDC.

Figure 1: Nonfarm payrolls incorporating benchmark revisions (dark blue in bold), implied levels of NFP using Bloomberg consensus as of February 1 and December 2023 (blue+), private employment (orange), mining industry Production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and Ch. Monthly GDP in 2017$ (pink), GDP, 3rd release (blue bars), GDPNow in Q1 2024 as of 2/1 (lilac box), all logarithms normalized to 2021M11=0 has been made into Source: BLS via FRED; BLS Preliminary BenchmarkFederal Reserve System, BEA 2023Q3 2nd Release Incorporating Comprehensive Revisions, S&P Global Market Insights (maiden name, macroeconomic advisor at IHS Markit) (2/1/2024 release), and author calculations.

Connections to the timelines of other institutions/organizations are welcome.

Other individual studies discussed on Econbrowser:

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